There’s a Donald Rumsfeld quote that’s referenced a lot in project management:
There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns–the ones we don’t know we don’t know.
When estimating any task or project, you have to take all of these things into account. There are things you know will happen, things you know could happen, and things you never once considered might happen.
Use a factor of 1/4 the time as well as four times the time.
Think something will take four weeks?
Plan on it taking a multiple of four, so plan on 16 weeks.
Also be prepared using a multiple of .25, so plan on it possibly taking only one week.
One week to 16 weeks.
Be better at avoiding the planning fallacy.
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